Fantasy Baseball Draft 2009

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Each year there are fantasy baseball busts. This is an axiomatic part of life, and most owners seem to accept the fate that befalls them. The key fact, often excluded, is that these disappointments are completely preventable. For every single fantasy bust in history,

from Ben Grieve to Dontrelle Willis, warning signs from the previous season have foretold of the demise. As a public service, I am going to name the top five players you musn't draft this season.

 

Just so you don't stop reading here, I will fill you in on my credentials. I am a college student who has been involved with fantasy baseball in some capacity since 1998. In 2005 I founded the Yahoo! PLUS league Juicers' Roid Barn, and have won the championship in every season since inception. I also participate in a competitive AL-only 5 x 5 keeper league, wherein I am now heavily favorited after overcoming an expansioniary handicap. While I may lack an official reputation, I expect these prognostications to vindicate me. All statistics used are courtesy of www.FANGRAPHS.com.

 

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS - SP) - From first glance, Dice-K looks like a putative ace. He was one of only three starting pitchers in the American League with a qualifying ERA under 3.0 (2.90). His eighteen wins were equally as impressive, and for leagues that count losses as a demerit stat, he kept the damage to a minimum. Here's the problem: Dice-K's greatness is a mirage. The man with his own eponymous generation actually regressed in skill from 2007 to 2008, unbeknownst to those fantasy owners who were bedazzled by his ERA. The most glaring warning sign was Matsuzaka's strikeout to walk ratio of 1.64. As a general rule, pitchers are considered acceptable if their K:BB rate eclipses the 2.0 threshold. Only extreme groundball pitchers are permitted to live below the 2.0 benchmark. Since Dice-K yielded grounders on only 39% of batted balls in 2008, he is pitching on borrowed time. The quality of his stuff remains strong (8.27 strikeouts per nine innings), but Dice-K's control problems have hit critical mass. His 94 walks allowed were the most in the American league, and eventually he will forfeit the ability to strand runners. The phenom's day of reckoning has arrived. Stay far, far away.

2. Michael Bourn (HOU - OF) - He may be "Bourn to Run", but this one-dimensional liability should be considered undraftable. He is still pegged as a starter for the Astros, who refuse to give up on Bourn after squandering Brad Lidge to get him in 2007. No one is doubting his speed (11.4 ab/sb in '08) but Bourn is simply too inept in the other categories to qualify as a net-plus for fantasy owners. Bourn's batting average in 2008 was .229, second lowest among all major league centerfielders. His OPS, .588, was lower than the slugging percentages of Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick and Manny Ramirez respectively. While I don't tend to err on the side of those chintzy baseball purists, I think the old adage rings true: You have to get on the bases first, before you can steal one. May I be the first official member of the "Ignorn Bourn" bandwagon.

3. Milton Bradley (CHC - OF) - Last year I took Bradley 387th overall and won my league handily. At the time, a myriad of injuries had diminished his value and knocked him off all but the savviest draft radars. Things have changed, and quickly. Bradley's .999 OPS has been dutifully rewarded by the doleful Chicago Cubs with a two-year, $20 million contract. The deal includes a third year option which vests if the Godfather of board games can keep his DL time to a minimum. Based on prior history, his odds of surviving the entire 2009 season injury-free are tenuous at best. Since 2002, he has landed on the DL eleven times, including a torn in ACL in 2007 that was excruciatingly painful for both the man himself and his owners. Bradley's Average Draft Position, according to early Yahoo! action, is 174th overall. His value has risen significantly since last year, even though he found a sporadic way to miss 36 games while playing with Texas. Injuries might be the major concern, but others exist as well. Bradley is moving from a park with one of the highest home run park differentials in baseball (1.229) to Wrigley Field, where confines remain friendly but not as friendly. (1.163) Tread carefully here, and avoid if possible.

4. Carlos Zambrano (CHC - SP) - Recurring theme here? Hey, at least they still have Hard-, nevermind. I have no medical evidence to corroborate this claim, but I am confident that Big Z's arm is falling off. Nothing else explains his dwindling strikeout ratio; Zambrano the innings-eater is finally fatigued. His strikeouts-per-nine innings are trending down toward Chien-Ming Wang territory (8.8 in '06, 7.4 in '07, 6.2 in '08), without a concomitant rise in ground-ball yield (47% 06-08). Unlike in the case of Dice-K above, Zambrano is showing higher ERAs backed up by skill erosion. His 3.95 mark in 2007 was a career high, and a .04 improvement in 2008 is not enough to rebuild drafter confidence. Zambrano, one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, finally saw DL time last year with shoulder inflammation. It is not unreasonable for one to ask if Zambrano has jumped the shark. He has logged over 1400 major league innings before age 28, and is now a different pitcher from the man who had ERAs under 3.3 in the 2004 and 2005 seasons. His average fastball velocity has dropped from 92.8 in 2005 to 91.3 in 2008. He is also throwing fewer fastballs, period. In 2005, Zambrano relied on the fastball 72.9% of the time. Now, it accounts for only 66.1% of his pitches. The raw data for this workhorse is not pretty, and that never augurs well for fantasy owners.

5. Adam LaRoche (PIT - 1B) - So what do we know about LaRoche? First, he has A.D.D. Second, he is Mexican. Who knew? None of this is relevant. LaRoche's spotty performance, however, is very germane to the discussion. His aggregate stats are very close to the mean numbers for first basemen, but LaRoche is simply hapless before the All-Star break. He has found a way to be consistently inconsistent. His career OPS after the break is .907, a very respectable mark that we would come to expect from a slugging corner infielder. As for his first-half numbers, let's just say they were possibly the inspiration for Edvard Munch's The_Scream. LaRoche has averaged a .771 OPS in first-half play, making him unownable until July. Drafting LaRoche is a senseless mistake, unless your league is ocean-deep. I'm serious, you better be finding Radiolarian ooze down there if you plan on drafting LaRoche. The better play is to let one of your ill-informed colleagues draft him, get dissatisfied quickly and send him to you for a lowball offer before he turns on the proverbial jets. Make it happen.

I hope I have provided you with useful analysis here. In formulating these evaluations I have used the same tried and true methods that have delivered a Victory Bobblehead to my doorstep every October. Good luck, and don't forget: don't chase saves, buy low, sell high, never draft Jeff Francoeur and any other cliched crap I didn't mention. Most importantly, have fun.

Tiger Wood is back in Arizona

Tiger Woods is on the tee, or he will be at 2:02 p.m Eastern time today in Arizona. Tiger Woods has had a bunch of tee times, but few as heavily anticipated as his tee time today at the Accenture World Match Play Championship. Because it is Tiger Woods' first tee time Tiger Woods Tee Time Not a Minute Too Soon for PGA in eight months, and with it comes the rebirth of the PGA after dragging on without Tiger for nearly a year.

Tiger Woods last had a tee time at the U.S. Open playoff in June, playing with a wobbly knee and having to walk on it for 90 holes over five days. Woods still beat upstart Rocco Mediate in a now legendary playoff, winning his 14'th major and turning himself into a semi-God in the process, if he wasn't thought of as one already.

But the God-king Woods had to fall after getting surgery for that wounded knee, and having to miss the rest of the season. The rest of the PGA tried to take advantage, but golf itself had far less luck going on without Woods.

Now, PGA's king is back in action, as Woods announced last week that the Accenture World Match Play Championship would be his first event back. Woods has won the event three times in his career, so he is returning to familiar territory. But he has only made it to the final weekend one other time in his seven other appearances.

The golfing world mostly wants Woods not to mess up in his first few events back, so he can arrive at the Masters at full strength in April. The records for major championships and Masters wins are getting closer and closer to being taken by Woods, so the countdown to those days may only be a few years away.

Woods tees off with a match against Australian supporting player Brendan Jones, the last of the 64 seeded players at the Match Play Championship. If Woods was to get all the way to the finals, he would be playing 104 holes this weekend to test his newly restructured knee. But match-play contests are extremely unpredictable, even for players like Woods.

Woods has perhaps not faced so much attention and anticipation for an opening tee time - even by his ridiculously high standards - since his first matches on the Tour over a decade ago. When Woods made his debut on the tour, he was projected as the PGA's savior and largely delivered. Now Tiger Woods Tee Time Not a Minute Too Soon for PGA he has to do it again, after golf faced eight months of low ratings and attention without him.

Woods would face either Tim Clark or Retief Goosen in the next round if he moved on.

2009 NFL MOCK Draft

This is my updated 2009 NFL Mock Draft. This article contains the 1st round of the 2009 NFL mock draft, and it is the 3rd time I have tweaked this round. The first round of this mock is being written on February 23rd 2009 and after some reports from the  scouting combine. You can see my last 1st round mock by clicking here. My profile also contains links to other rounds and other football articles please leave comments if you check them out.

 

1 Detroit Lions- Matthew Stafford QB Georgia

I had Andre Smith going here but his antics at the 2009 NFL draft combine have dropped him. Stafford will sit the pine and learn the game while Culpepper gets hammered behind this weak offensive line.

2 St. Louis Rams- Eugene Monroe OT Virginia

At 6ft 5 and a half, weighing 310 pounds Monroe has a little room to pick up even more bulk. He has had some injury problems but will be able to replace Orlando Pace at that important left tackle spot.

3 Kansas City Chiefs- Jason Smith OT Baylor

Some predict the Chiefs grabbing a quarterback, but new general manger Scott Pioli comes from the Patriots, where two guys named Brady and Cassel did ok as non first round draft picks. Jason Smith does possibly have some injury concerns but I think the Chiefs will take him here

4 Seattle Seahawks- Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri

I had Crabtree here but I think his stock falls with the injury. Maclin will help a devastated wide receiver group for the Seattle Seahawks.

5 Cleveland Browns- Aaron Curry LB- Wake Forrest

I had Curry ranked lower than this which was probably a mistake. I had Knowshon Moreno here but his stock fell with a slow 40 time at the combine. Curry will add some pop to a lackluster Browns defense/

6 Cincinnati Bengals- Michael Oher OT Ole Miss

In my previous 2009 Mock Draft, I had Mark Sanchez here, my adoring fans have corrected that notion. Michael Oher will help a weak offensive line to protect Carson Palmer.

7 Oakland Raiders- Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech

The Raiders need a wide receiver and will snatch up Crabtree despite the injury. Terrell Owens had a similar injury and did ok afterwards. Crabtree is well worth a pick at this point due to his vast potential.

8 Jacksonville Jaguars- Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State

Michael Jenkins can help a Jaguars secondary by playing either safety or corner.

9 Green Bay Packers- Aaron Maybin LB Penn State

Maybin could play defensive end or linebacker and Green Bay is running a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Aaron Maybin would be a good fit and you never have enough pass rushers.

10 San Francisco 49ers- Mark Sanchez QB USC

Mark Sanchez will give San Francisco a quarterback of the future and maybe some fans in the seats.

11 Buffalo Bills- Brian Orakpo DE Texas

Orakpo gives the Bills a much needed pass rusher, look for their tight end needs to be addressed later in this 2009 NFL mock draft.

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12 Denver Broncos- Everette Brown DE Florida State

Denver's defense got Mike Shanahan fired and it will be addressed here with Brown who will help out their defensive line.

13 Washington Redskins- Andre Smith OT Alabama

Snider takes chances on players and he will take one on Andre Smith despite his antics at the 2009 NFL draft combine.

14 New Orleans Saints- Vontae Davis CB Illinois

Davis will fill a need for the Saints whose pass defense was pretty bad at times in 2008. However if Knowshon Marino falls this far the Saints may bite. Reggie Bush is injured often, Aaron Stecker is a free agent and the thought is that Deuce McAllister won't be with the team next season.

15 Houston Texans- B.J. Raji DT Boston College

Raji would make a great addition to Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye in what could be a great young D line rotation. Raji is a wide body at 6'1' and 325 pounds and will be a good run stopper in the NFL.

16 San Diego Chargers- Rey MaualugaLB USC

You can never have enough linebackers in the 3-4 defense and Maualuga will be a good fit with Merriman or as a replacement for him if he does not come back from injury.

17 New York Jets- Tyson Jackson DL LSU

Jackson will bring some youth to the defensive line and can play end in the Jets 3-4 defense under new coach Rex Ryan.

18 Chicago Bears- Percy Harvin WR Florida

The Bears have other needs but Harvin showing a clean bill of health at the combine raises his stock. Going into the season with Devon Hester as the number 1 wideout is unacceptable.

 

19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Josh Freeman QB Kansas State

Taking Freeman here does two things. He gives Tampa Bay a 6 ft 6 249 pound quarterback to groom and keeps him from falling to the Vikes who will be looking for a QB.

20 Detroit Lions (From Dallas) - Duke Robinson G Oklahoma

The Lions add the best guard on most draft lists as they start to work on that offensive line.

21 Philadelphia Eagles- Eben Britton OT Arizona

The Eagles made it known they are looking for offensive linemen in free agency and the draft. Britton really has the size at 6-6 and over 300 pounds to be a good offensive lineman. His play improved when he was switched to left tackle at Arizona.

22 Minnesota Vikings- Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech

Since a top tier quarterback is no longer available in my 2009 NFL Mock draft the Vikings pick defense. Adding a 6-7 guy who can gain weight to an already stellar defensive line makes sense here.

23 New England Patriots- Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia

Moreno's stock fell with a slow 40 time but the Patriots tend to go by on the field play. Moreno adds some depth to a backfield that needs it, and could end up starting for the Pats.

Atlanta Falcons- Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State

The Falcons will remember how much Michael Vick loved Algie Crumpler in his prime. Matt Ryan will love throwing to the best tight end in the 2009 NFL draft. Ignore Pettigrew's slow 40 time at the combine he can play the game.

25 Miami Dolphins- Clint Sintim LB Virginia

Sintim could play linebacker or end for the Dolphins and can really get to the passer. I wouldn't be shocked however to see the Dolphins go offensive line or receiver here.

26 Baltimore Ravens- Brian Cushing LB USC

The Ravens will need to fill spots on that awesome defense. It is unlikely that Terrell Suggs and or Ray Lewis will be back next season. Cushing has played several positions in his college career and should flourish in Baltimore.

27 Indianapolis Colts- Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss

Peria Jerry is 6ft 1 and weighs just under 300 pounds and runs a sub 5.0 40 yard dash. He could help shore up bad Colts defensive line.

28 Philadelphia Eagles (From Carolina) - William Moore S Missouri

 

Brian Dawkins may be gone and they will need a replacement. Moore is a good tackler and can also pick off passes from the safety position.

29 New York Giants- Kenny Britt WR Rutgers

Right there in the Giants backyard at Rutgers will be their possible replacement for Plaxico Burress. Kenny Britt is big at 6-4 and 215 pounds, he should be able to block as well as act as a possession wide receiver.

 

30 Tennessee Titans- Ron Brace DT Boston College

With Albert Haynesworth probably leaving as a free agent, DT becomes a need for the Tennessee Titans. Brace is big enough to plug holes and athletic enough to get the occasional sack.

31 Arizona Cardinals- LaSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh.

With Edgerrin James probably gone and Hightower possibly not the answer, look for Arizona to add another running back to the mix. McCoy is a solid back who can also catch the ball which is needed in this offense.

32 Pittsburgh Steelers- Phil Loadholt ( I bet Chris Berman can't wait to announce this name) OT Oklahoma

6ft 8 inches tall and weighing 343 pounds he is made for the Steelers offensive line. Off the field problems may prevent them taking him. But I think they will go O line for sure and he makes sense.

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Ray Lewis A cowboy

This year was a disappointment for the Cowboys. At times the Cowboy defense looked like the best defense in the league and at others they looked undisciplined and poorly coached. The Tank Johnson and Adam Jones experiment did not work out as planned. Terrance Newman battled injuries as did Free Safety Roy Williams which left the Cowboy secondary depleted. By the end of the year, it became clear that a few more additions would be needed if this team would be able to compete in a division with so many prolific offenses.

Enter Ray Lewis.

The Baltimore Ravens have 4 key free agents to sign this offseason. Ray Lewis is among them and it looks like the Cowboys are the frontrunners for one of the best linebackers in the league. In fact, according to Michael Lewis on ESPN, he does not believe that the Ravens will be able to sign the charismatic linebacker and expects to see him in Dallas next season. While Ray Lewis is past his prime, he is still one of the best linebackers in the game. He brings experience, consistency and solid leadership which is sorely needed in Dallas. There are still a few holes to fill this offseason and Ray Lewis alone will not be enough, but it is a step in the right direction for this defense.